Oorang’s 2003 Over/Under Season Total Report
(Based on Pinnacle Lines dated 7/28/03)
Players,
Remember when the Season Totals for the Cowboys and 49ers used to be 12 and 11.5? After following the season totals for over 7 years it’s noticeable that the new lines reflect the salary cap and recent team dilution. There isn’t an Under lower than 5.5. Tampa Bay and Oakland are each at 10.5. Not exactly a dominant season total. If you call an Over team that wins 11 games this year (5 teams did last year), you’ve called a winner. If you call an Under team that wins 5 games or less (5 teams did last year), you’ve called a winner.
2002 Season Totals reflected a trend towards the same. The St. Louis Rams, listed at 11.5, and the Houston Texans (expansion) listed at 4.5, were the only exceptions to a range of 10.5 and one team, Carolina, at 5.5. The same as this year.
2001 Season Totals saw 6 teams with 5 Losses or under and 8 (eight!) teams at 11 or better.
Meaningless Stat?: Did 2002 see a break of 20 years where at least one team had 3 or less wins? No. Cincinnati covered with a 2-14 last season. The average record of the worst team in a season for the last 20 years?
42 / 20 = 2.1 wins per year.
Stuff happens. (Will Zero?)
----------------------------------------------------
What information do we have when betting Over/Under Season Totals?
Past Results
Team Additions/Subtractions
Strength of Schedule
Intangibles
Crooked Lines
Personal Experience and Intuition
A few observations:
I’ve found value in the UNDER betting Season Totals. It’s seems harder to wager on teams that need to go on a streak than teams that might not do well for a variety of reasons: injury, lack of talent, coach/owner disruption.
Division strength is key. When three teams are markedly better than the bottom dweller, for example, Arizona, check for value on the Under.
Cushion is a factor in future wagering. A push can be a deciding factor in a future wager. You never want to push, but considering time invested, it’s useful insurance and necessary when things don’t go exactly as predicted (no!). I believe a future football wager with a factor of 1.0 game in your favor is an average wager. A factor of 1.5 is necessary for a good future bet. 2.0 or more would be a top play.
Momentum is a big factor in Season Totals. Teams that are doing well will win that extra game or two that you didn’t account for, and teams that are losing will lose those extra games.
Depth (good or lack of), especially at QB, is very important. You may need to rely on the 2nd QB to win you some games if you have the Over. On the other side, a porous secondary and lack of pass rush makes it very hard to consistently win games.
Schedule, of course, is a major factor in choosing a winning season total. Check strength of schedule, especially early to determine whether a team might get off to a fast or slow start.
The time for value is now!
2003 Season Total Report
Sorry I didn’t include the vigs which are larger than in the past. These are my thoughts and what I’m going to do.
Tampa Bay 10.5
Awesome D. Tough schedule. Post-SB, etc. Too many factors.
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5
If they beat it, Pennsylvania is the place for football.
Green Bay 9.5
Do you want to take a chance on Ahman Green and that defense?
Tennessee Titans 9.5
Easy division, but early questions.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5
Maddox and Bettis in lead roles? Is the defense fixed just with Troy?
Oakland Raiders 9.5
Very fair line if you’re a Raider fan.
Denver Broncos 9.5
They can run, and stop the run. But this division is too competitive.
Miami Dolphins 9.5
If Big Lou has them to win the Conference I’ll play a small Over. J
New York Jets 9.5
Jets defense improved but so did the division. Really squeaked in last year. Is 10 wins feasible on 2003’s toughest schedule? Five preseason games and a tough schedule that gets tougher in the second half. 1.0 advantage.
Play the Under.
S.F 49ers 9.5
San Francisco seems to be walking a fine line without upgrading their team too much. There is solid starting talent but injuries must be avoided. Did they keep up with the Jones’?
St. Louis Rams 9.5
The Rams know what they are going to do, they’re just not telling anybody. They’ve been there before but it’s been awhile.
Atlanta Falcons 9.5
I think he can do it. They think he can do it. He thinks he can do it. Do you think he can do it?
New England Patriots 8.5
If you’ve got them to win the division, lean towards the Over. No reason they should go worse than 7-9, 8-8 even if the running game is weak.
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5
There’s not a lot of cushion and a fairly tough schedule. I think they will just break the Over despite the defense.
Cleveland Browns 8.5
No value on a team with a lot of questions. I’m leaning towards the Under.
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Good defenses in this division but Indi has a good offense too. Should finally win in easier division. Good schedule for them. 1.5 advantage.
Play the Over.
Buffalo Bills 8.5
If you want an e-ticket Season Total bet either side of this coin@!%#.
New York Giants 8.5
Same as New England. If you’ve got them to win the division, this is a good number to bet into. This division is even more schizophrenic than the AFC East.
San Diego 8.5
Feels like a team on the rise but in a tough division. Hard to rely on persistent late season swoons in calling a total.
Washington Redskins 7.5
Redskins fans are probably feeling a slighted by this line. But they have a tough schedule and a tough order. A break in November yet 3 out of 4 are on the road.
Minnesota Vikings 8.5
Very tough schedule early. Not enough value either way. A good line.
New Orleans Saints 7.5
There are some breaks in this schedule. They’ve seemingly beefed up the team. This number reflects strength in the division but I would have to lean towards the Over.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5
Even if St. Louis bounces back, this team seems to have the intangibles. A .500 season seems plausible and the schedule is favorable. If the defense can improve enough the offense should handle it. Dilfer is good insurance. 1.0 advantage.
Play on the Over
Baltimore Ravens 7.5
No value. Decent schedule and their defense should win 6 by themselves.
Dallas Cowboys 7.5
A 8-8 season would be a great accomplishment for the Boys.
Carolina Panthers 7.5
It seems like most teams have a tough schedule this year and the Panthers are no exception. Just like the Cowboys, an 8-8 season would be an accomplishment.
Chicago Bears 6.5
For all the hype and chatter about how well the Bears are going to do it doesn’t seem reflected in this line. There is room to wiggle in this division but like the Vikings, the schedule is a nightmare.
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5
Too many outcomes to consider.
Detroit Lions 5.5
The Lions goal is to get better first. Then they can worry about winning games. Slight better schedule than Vikings and Bears but still tough competition. The Lions would consider themselves fortunate to win 6 or 7. Lay off.
Arizona Cardinals 5.5
Arizona has the 32 toughest schedule this year, hence the higher number. But it might be hard to argue that there is a worse team in the league. Houston has a defense and Detroit, well… Anyway, bad teams find ways to lose games. If they win all the games they are supposed to win, they should hit 6. Lean on the Under.
Cincinnati Bengals 5.5
Look at their division and past history. Look at the money they spent and new talent on the team. They usually take the Under so this is a lay off for me.
Houston Texans 5.5
There’s a break or two in the 7th toughest schedule, but not early and not often. Still should be very tough for Texans to break 6 wins.
I’ll be looking at these last 4 bottom dwellers in the next couple of weeks to see if some value pops up. But so far:
Jets Under
Seattle Over
Indianapolis Over
--------------------
Last year I took 3 futures in the NFL:
Baltimore under 7.5. A 1.0 prediction. Jeff Blake & Co. were not enough for that high number. Felt the 7.5 was too high and reflected overdue respect from Super Bowl Win. In the end, Billick made the wager too close for comfort.
Detroit Under 6.0. A 1.5 prediction. Schedule was a huge factor. Experienced division vs. rookie QB. A real tough start and they couldn’t pull out the games against similar opponents.
Houston was considered a 1.0 wager. Expansion history (these were no Carolina Panthers), tough division on paper, and that extra half point were factors.
Good luck to everybody. All comments are appreciated.
Oorang
Don’t Mess with the Rx Rally Monkey!!!
(Based on Pinnacle Lines dated 7/28/03)
Players,
Remember when the Season Totals for the Cowboys and 49ers used to be 12 and 11.5? After following the season totals for over 7 years it’s noticeable that the new lines reflect the salary cap and recent team dilution. There isn’t an Under lower than 5.5. Tampa Bay and Oakland are each at 10.5. Not exactly a dominant season total. If you call an Over team that wins 11 games this year (5 teams did last year), you’ve called a winner. If you call an Under team that wins 5 games or less (5 teams did last year), you’ve called a winner.
2002 Season Totals reflected a trend towards the same. The St. Louis Rams, listed at 11.5, and the Houston Texans (expansion) listed at 4.5, were the only exceptions to a range of 10.5 and one team, Carolina, at 5.5. The same as this year.
2001 Season Totals saw 6 teams with 5 Losses or under and 8 (eight!) teams at 11 or better.
Meaningless Stat?: Did 2002 see a break of 20 years where at least one team had 3 or less wins? No. Cincinnati covered with a 2-14 last season. The average record of the worst team in a season for the last 20 years?
42 / 20 = 2.1 wins per year.
Stuff happens. (Will Zero?)
----------------------------------------------------
What information do we have when betting Over/Under Season Totals?
Past Results
Team Additions/Subtractions
Strength of Schedule
Intangibles
Crooked Lines
Personal Experience and Intuition
A few observations:
I’ve found value in the UNDER betting Season Totals. It’s seems harder to wager on teams that need to go on a streak than teams that might not do well for a variety of reasons: injury, lack of talent, coach/owner disruption.
Division strength is key. When three teams are markedly better than the bottom dweller, for example, Arizona, check for value on the Under.
Cushion is a factor in future wagering. A push can be a deciding factor in a future wager. You never want to push, but considering time invested, it’s useful insurance and necessary when things don’t go exactly as predicted (no!). I believe a future football wager with a factor of 1.0 game in your favor is an average wager. A factor of 1.5 is necessary for a good future bet. 2.0 or more would be a top play.
Momentum is a big factor in Season Totals. Teams that are doing well will win that extra game or two that you didn’t account for, and teams that are losing will lose those extra games.
Depth (good or lack of), especially at QB, is very important. You may need to rely on the 2nd QB to win you some games if you have the Over. On the other side, a porous secondary and lack of pass rush makes it very hard to consistently win games.
Schedule, of course, is a major factor in choosing a winning season total. Check strength of schedule, especially early to determine whether a team might get off to a fast or slow start.
The time for value is now!
2003 Season Total Report
Sorry I didn’t include the vigs which are larger than in the past. These are my thoughts and what I’m going to do.
Tampa Bay 10.5
Awesome D. Tough schedule. Post-SB, etc. Too many factors.
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5
If they beat it, Pennsylvania is the place for football.
Green Bay 9.5
Do you want to take a chance on Ahman Green and that defense?
Tennessee Titans 9.5
Easy division, but early questions.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5
Maddox and Bettis in lead roles? Is the defense fixed just with Troy?
Oakland Raiders 9.5
Very fair line if you’re a Raider fan.
Denver Broncos 9.5
They can run, and stop the run. But this division is too competitive.
Miami Dolphins 9.5
If Big Lou has them to win the Conference I’ll play a small Over. J
New York Jets 9.5
Jets defense improved but so did the division. Really squeaked in last year. Is 10 wins feasible on 2003’s toughest schedule? Five preseason games and a tough schedule that gets tougher in the second half. 1.0 advantage.
Play the Under.
S.F 49ers 9.5
San Francisco seems to be walking a fine line without upgrading their team too much. There is solid starting talent but injuries must be avoided. Did they keep up with the Jones’?
St. Louis Rams 9.5
The Rams know what they are going to do, they’re just not telling anybody. They’ve been there before but it’s been awhile.
Atlanta Falcons 9.5
I think he can do it. They think he can do it. He thinks he can do it. Do you think he can do it?
New England Patriots 8.5
If you’ve got them to win the division, lean towards the Over. No reason they should go worse than 7-9, 8-8 even if the running game is weak.
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5
There’s not a lot of cushion and a fairly tough schedule. I think they will just break the Over despite the defense.
Cleveland Browns 8.5
No value on a team with a lot of questions. I’m leaning towards the Under.
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Good defenses in this division but Indi has a good offense too. Should finally win in easier division. Good schedule for them. 1.5 advantage.
Play the Over.
Buffalo Bills 8.5
If you want an e-ticket Season Total bet either side of this coin@!%#.
New York Giants 8.5
Same as New England. If you’ve got them to win the division, this is a good number to bet into. This division is even more schizophrenic than the AFC East.
San Diego 8.5
Feels like a team on the rise but in a tough division. Hard to rely on persistent late season swoons in calling a total.
Washington Redskins 7.5
Redskins fans are probably feeling a slighted by this line. But they have a tough schedule and a tough order. A break in November yet 3 out of 4 are on the road.
Minnesota Vikings 8.5
Very tough schedule early. Not enough value either way. A good line.
New Orleans Saints 7.5
There are some breaks in this schedule. They’ve seemingly beefed up the team. This number reflects strength in the division but I would have to lean towards the Over.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5
Even if St. Louis bounces back, this team seems to have the intangibles. A .500 season seems plausible and the schedule is favorable. If the defense can improve enough the offense should handle it. Dilfer is good insurance. 1.0 advantage.
Play on the Over
Baltimore Ravens 7.5
No value. Decent schedule and their defense should win 6 by themselves.
Dallas Cowboys 7.5
A 8-8 season would be a great accomplishment for the Boys.
Carolina Panthers 7.5
It seems like most teams have a tough schedule this year and the Panthers are no exception. Just like the Cowboys, an 8-8 season would be an accomplishment.
Chicago Bears 6.5
For all the hype and chatter about how well the Bears are going to do it doesn’t seem reflected in this line. There is room to wiggle in this division but like the Vikings, the schedule is a nightmare.
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5
Too many outcomes to consider.
Detroit Lions 5.5
The Lions goal is to get better first. Then they can worry about winning games. Slight better schedule than Vikings and Bears but still tough competition. The Lions would consider themselves fortunate to win 6 or 7. Lay off.
Arizona Cardinals 5.5
Arizona has the 32 toughest schedule this year, hence the higher number. But it might be hard to argue that there is a worse team in the league. Houston has a defense and Detroit, well… Anyway, bad teams find ways to lose games. If they win all the games they are supposed to win, they should hit 6. Lean on the Under.
Cincinnati Bengals 5.5
Look at their division and past history. Look at the money they spent and new talent on the team. They usually take the Under so this is a lay off for me.
Houston Texans 5.5
There’s a break or two in the 7th toughest schedule, but not early and not often. Still should be very tough for Texans to break 6 wins.
I’ll be looking at these last 4 bottom dwellers in the next couple of weeks to see if some value pops up. But so far:
Jets Under
Seattle Over
Indianapolis Over
--------------------
Last year I took 3 futures in the NFL:
Baltimore under 7.5. A 1.0 prediction. Jeff Blake & Co. were not enough for that high number. Felt the 7.5 was too high and reflected overdue respect from Super Bowl Win. In the end, Billick made the wager too close for comfort.
Detroit Under 6.0. A 1.5 prediction. Schedule was a huge factor. Experienced division vs. rookie QB. A real tough start and they couldn’t pull out the games against similar opponents.
Houston was considered a 1.0 wager. Expansion history (these were no Carolina Panthers), tough division on paper, and that extra half point were factors.
Good luck to everybody. All comments are appreciated.
Oorang
Don’t Mess with the Rx Rally Monkey!!!
